The El Niño climate event that helped supercharge global warming to record levels in 2015 and 2016 is set for an early return, according to a forecast from the World Meteorological Organization.

El Niño events are prompted by natural fluctuation in ocean temperatures in the Pacific but have a global impact, leading to flooding, droughts and heatwaves. They also exacerbate the increased extreme weather events occurring due to the continued heating of the world as a result of human-caused climate change.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday that a new El Niño was 50-60% likely before the end of 2017. “Memories are still fresh of the powerful 2015-2016 El Niño which was associated with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world and which, combined with long-term climate change, led to the increase of global temperatures to new record highs in both 2015 and 2016,” said Maxx Dilley, director of WMO’s climate prediction and adaptation division.(guardian)…[+]

European leaders may be preparing to recognise a united Ireland, in a declaration that would pave the way for the north to swiftly rejoin the European Union. At their first Brexit summit on Saturday, the EU’s 27 leaders are expected to discuss a text stating that if Ireland unified, the north would automatically become part of the EU.

The inclusion of the text is a victory for the Irish government, which had pressed for the inclusion of a “GDR clause”, a reference to the integration of the former east German state into the European Community after the fall of the Berlin wall. The declaration is bound to raise fears that Brexit could trigger the unravelling of the UK, although there is no majority in Northern Ireland for unification.(guardian)…[+]

The US admiral in charge of a potential conflict with North Korea has said his goal is to bring Kim Jong-un “to his senses, not to his knees”. Tensions between the US and North Korea are white-hot ahead of an anticipated sixth nuclear test from Pyongyang and its accelerating long-range missile development. Donald Trump has invited the entire US Senate to the White House on Wednesday afternoon for a classified briefing on the situation.

Adm Harry Harris, the commander of US Pacific Command (Pacom), sounded dire notes before a congressional panel on Wednesday, testifying that he did not have confidence that North Korea would refrain from “something precipitous” should it succeed in miniaturizing a nuclear weapon to mount on a ballistic missile.

While Harris did not provide any timetable for reaching an “inflection point” in North Korean nuclear capabilities, he suggested that the North’s accelerating missile tests indicated that Pyongyang will at some point be able to launch a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile at the United States unless stopped by an external force, diplomatically or militarily.(guardian)…[+]

Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s election team has urged his supporters not to cast a single vote for the far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen in the final runoff in two weeks’ time. The hard-left firebrand, however, stopped short of joining the “anti-Le Pen bloc” and supporting a vote for the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron.Not a single vote should go to the FN [Front National],” Mélenchon’s spokesman Alexis Corbière told journalists on Wednesday. “Not one.”

He said the France Unbowed movement led by Mélenchon was consulting its 440,000 members on whether they supported abstaining, casting a blank vote, or voting for Macron in the second round runoff vote on 7 May.

“Clearly, there is no question of an FN vote … and we are not saying, neither one nor the other. Let me be clear, again, nothing will make us want one single vote to go to the FN.”

He said Les Insoumis, as Mélenchon supporters are called, did not need advice or a “moral lesson” on how to vote. Mélenchon is not expected to say how he intends to vote or to advise his supporters. The result of the consultation will be published next Tuesday.(guardian)…[+]

French intelligence has identified the chemical “signature” of the Syrian government at the site of a nerve agent attack this month, indicating that the sarin used in the bombing came from Bashar al-Assad’s stockpiles.

Samples from the scene of the attack in the town of Khan Sheikhun, contained chemical compounds that were a hallmark of Assad’s sarin manufacturing process and matched samples collected from the site of a prior attack by government forces, a declassified intelligence report says.

It also indicates that the sarin used in the 4 April attack, which killed more than 80 people, was delivered from the air, adding further weight to the international consensus that the Assad regime was responsible for the massacre. “Based on this overall evaluation and on reliable and consistent intelligence collected by our services, France assesses that the Syrian armed forces and security services perpetrated a chemical attack using sarin against civilians,” the report says.(guardian)…[+]

Stings by self-styled paedophile hunters – who pose as children online to catch potential sexual predators – are diverting “significant resources” into the protection of suspects, police chiefs have said. After a court ruled in favour of a group that argued that it should face no official oversight, Ch Con Simon Bailey, of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, said the group’s activities could jeopardise investigations.

Bailey, the national policing lead on child abuse investigation, said so-called paedophile hunters were “taking risks they don’t understand”.

“Revealing the identity of suspected paedophiles gives the suspect the opportunity to destroy evidence before the police can investigate them,” he said. “It can jeopardise ongoing police investigations and these people have no way of safeguarding child victims.” He also warned that wrongful allegations could have grave consequences for those accused.(guardian)…[+]

Afghanistan’s top two defence officials have resigned after a Taliban attack killed more than 140 soldiers at an army base, as the US defence secretary, James Mattis, touched down on an unannounced visit to meet American troops and Afghan officials.

“Defence minister Abdullah Habibi and army chief of staff Qadam Shah Shahim stepped down with immediate effect,” the presidential palace in Kabul tweeted. Protesters gathered outside the palace on Monday after public pressure mounted over the weekend for officials to be held accountable. The attack on Friday at the largest Afghan army base in the north, possibly the deadliest inflicted by the Taliban on the country’s security forces since 2001, involved up to 12 militants. They breached the base by posing as injured soldiers, in fatigues and military vehicles, wearing leg bandages and arm drips. After setting off explosives at one checkpoint, they went on a shooting rampage outside the base mosque and inside the mess hall where they gunned down crowds of unarmed soldiers.(guardian)…[+]

The current favourite to become president in the French election could spell bad news for the UK government in talks on Brexit should he win. If Emmanuel Macron succeeds in the second round on 7 May, which he is currently favourite to do, he is likely to drive a hard bargain in Brexit negotiations. The former economy minister, who resigned to campaign for change, has been an outspoken critic of the UK’s decision to leave the EU. In his election manifesto he described Brexit as a “crime” that will leave the UK facing “servitude”.

The independent centrist favours a hard Brexit that would leave the UK outside of the single market, and has stressed the importance of “defending the integrity” of the EU’s intertwined freedoms of movement and trade. Negotiations would undoubtedly be tougher with a President Macron at the table, as he has already warned that there can be no “caveat or waiver” to the EU’s “unbreakable” position of defending its own interests first. In an interview shortly after announcing his candidacy, he said that British voters’ choice to leave the 28-nation EU must be respected, but that the UK should not be given special treatment.(guardian)…[+]

Afghans are still reeling from the Taliban’s deadliest attack on the security forces since 2001, with the country’s leadership accused of fumbling the response to the atrocity. As many as a dozen militants stormed the largest army base in northern Afghanistan on Friday, killing at least 140 soldiers, many of them unarmed.The president, Ashraf Ghani, called for a national day of mourning and travelled to Mazar-i-Sharif to visit the base, but many among a grieving population called for answers, reassurances – and government heads to roll. In an apparent attempt to save face, the central administration has continuously downplayed the death toll, which has been confirmed by anonymous officials in many corners of government.Forty-eight hours after the attack, the president’s office and the defence ministryput the number of dead and injured at “more than 100”. Sediq Sediqqi, the director of the government’s media and information centre, said officials were still verifying the identity of the victims.

Victims’ relatives, however, were losing patience.(guardian)…[+]

Russian operatives sought to infiltrate the Trump campaign using some of the US president’s own advisers, including Carter Page, according to a CNN report that cited unnamed US officials.

Page, a former Merrill Lynch banker who Trump referred to as a foreign policy adviser during his presidential race, has emerged as a key figure in several US investigations into possible coordination between the Kremlin. New allegations that federal investigators have gathered intelligence that suggests Russian operatives may have used Page to try to gain access to the Trump campaign follows a separate report by the Washington Post that he was being monitored by the FBI last summer because of suspicions about his ties with Russia.(guardian)...[+]